Monday 8 February 2016

Trust in the Civil Service 1

As Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service, Sir Jeremy Heywood is one of the most powerful people in the country and three days ago on 5 February 2016 he tackled the question of Trust in the Civil Service:

© Ipsos MORI
According to an Ipsos MORI poll, civil servants are more trusted than journalists and politicians (and estate agents and bankers) and less trusted than policemen, prelates, scientists, teachers and doctors. If you believe Ipsos MORI, or any other pollsters, trust in civil servants has been increasing since 1983 but 45% of people still don't believe a word Sir Jeremy says.
Contents:
On the hook

Cosmetic change
Agile farmers
NPfIT & UC
HMRC
Exemplary
GOV.UK Verify (RIP)
digidentity & the Post Office
GBGroup & the Royal Mail
Privacy
Security
Sir Jeremy's wager

YouGov v. Ipsos MORI

Quis assessiet ipsos assessores?
Or as a real classicist would ask
Quis iudicet ipsos iudicos?
On the hook
There's a long way to go, 45% of the way, before the "integrity, honesty, impartiality and objectivity" of the civil service are reflected in undiluted public trust. How to get there?

Sir Jeremy suggests that among other things openness, efficiency and innovation may help:
We have also become more innovative. Digital has been at the forefront of this, allowing us to provide services that are more efficient, but also shaped around the needs of users. The New Zealand Government has used GOV.UK source code for their own online presence and the Obama Administration has created a US digital service borrowing from our own Government Digital Service (GDS).
He keeps coming back to "digital". On 11 January 2016 he wrote, in Civil Service priorities - what we’ve achieved, and what’s ahead:
World leaders
Our digital capability has continued to go from strength to strength, and Britain is now undoubtedly one of the world leaders in digital government. We have adopted new ideas and a new agile way of working to try to make everything we do more efficient and better for users. The award-winning GOV.UK has received 2 billion visits and reduced running costs by over half. Departments such as HMRC and DWP are becoming truly digital organisations, transformed from where they were only a few years ago. And at the Spending Review, an additional £1.8 billion investment in digital transformation, as well as £450 million specifically for GDS, was announced.
Not just in his blog posts, but in his tweets as well, Sir Jeremy can't keep away from the importance of the digital transformation of government by GDS.

In his review of 2015, there was no room to mention the successes scored by the Ministry of Defence, for example, or the Department of Health or the Department for Work and Pensions or the Department for Education or Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs but there was room for three tweets about GDS:


He's on the hook. He's committed. They've got each other over a barrel. He has deliberately linked his fate and GDS's. Was that wise?

Cosmetic change
Sir Jeremy describes the "award-winning GOV.UK" as a "huge success story". That's not how Tom Loosemore, the ex-deputy director of GDS, sees it:


Agile farmers
Under the heading World leaders, Sir Jeremy endorses agile software engineering as a way to try to "make everything we do more efficient and better for users". He's on thin ice.

The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs used agile to develop their new Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) for farmers. Mike Bracken, the ex-executive director of GDS said:
I go weekly now. I go to the meeting of the Common Agricultural Policy Reform Group. It's the RPA. It's the Rural Payments Agency.

Why I'm so excited about that is because they've embraced agile completely. They're going with an agile build out of a whole new programme. That's going to affect everyone in this country, and how they deal with land management, all the farmers, all the people who deal with crops, all the data. It's going to create, I think, a data industry around some of that data.

It's going to help us deal with Europe in a different way, and quite rightly we're building it as a platform. It's going to be another example of government as a platform.

I'm on the Board, and I'm trying to help them every week, and GDS will be working very closely with them to deliver that.
BPS failed nonetheless:
A multi-million pound government IT system to process EU subsidy payments for farmers has been largely abandoned following "performance problems".

The system will be re-launched next week with farmers asked to submit Basic Payment Scheme claims on paper forms.

Farmers say they have struggled with the £154m website for months ...
NPfIT & UC
"Departments such as HMRC and DWP are becoming truly digital organisations, transformed from where they were only a few years ago", according to Sir Jeremy.

Is it an accident that he failed to mention the Department of Health and their National Programme for Information Technology (NPfIT)? That really was a world-leading transformation project and when it failed we taxpayers sat quietly by, warming our hands at the bonfire of £11 billion+ wasted.

NPfIT was pre-GDS and pre-agile but we taxpayers are getting ready for another world-leading celebration when we can warm our hands at the Department for Works and Pensions's Universal Credit bonfire. DWP show no signs whatever of becoming a "truly digital organisation".

HMRC
Which makes it so odd that Sir Jeremy places DWP in the same basket as HMRC ...

... because Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs already are on the way to becoming a truly digital organisation.

Pre-GDS and pre-agile, HMRC have had millions of individuals and companies submitting digital returns for 15 years or more using the Government Gateway. HMRC have managed to get all companies submitting their accounts in iXBRL (inline extensible business reporting language, since you ask). And HMRC have managed to deploy RTI, Real Time Information.

Meanwhile GDS couldn't even computerise BPS's 100,000 farmers.

Exemplary
BPS was just one of the 25 public services GDS chose to develop as exemplars. How about the others?

According to Mike Beaven, just before he became the ex-director of transformation at GDS, eight of these exemplar services went live on time. Or 17 of them, if you count services that are still in beta testing as live. Or 20, according to the Conservative Party Manifesto 2015 (p.49) ... It's not easy counting things. As Mr Beaven explained, just before leaving: "The [transformation] programme has ended ... We’re only just beginning" (please see final paragraph).

How did Sir Jeremy choose to make himself dependent on GDS, rather than HMRC? How are GDS supposed to increase trust in the civil service?

GOV.UK Verify (RIP)
It's not just that GDS can't count. They can't even get their lipstick on straight.

HMRC: "It’s not our IT system; it’s the Cabinet Office’s"
Look at GOV.UK Verify (RIP), the national identity management scheme that GDS are trying to foist on the public. So-called "identity providers" will provide us all with an on-line identity and that's what we'll use to transact with government. That's the idea, at least.

First GDS told us that all "identity providers" (also known as "certified companies") must be certified trustworthy before they can work for GOV.UK Verify (RIP), please see Delivering Identity Assurance: You must be certified. Now we're told Some ID providers may not be accredited by GOV.UK Verify [RIP] go live.

If you try to register with GOV.UK Verify (RIP), after a few clicks, you will see this screen:


"There's no charge for this service"? Why do GDS need £450 million then?

"A certified company will verify your identity. They've all met security standards set by government"? No.

Experian and digidentity have been certified. So have Verizon, although they're not deemed trustworthy enough in Germany, where they're banned from any government contract..

But the Post Office haven't been certified. Their application for certification was registered in February 2014 and lapsed a year later in February 2015. Here we are in February 2016 and GDS are still suggesting that the Post Office have been certified.

That is no way to inspire trust.

digidentity & the Post Office
NHS: "People said I don't trust my bank, I don't trust the Post Office, I trust the NHS"
You may choose to be registered by the Post Office. GDS offer you that option. But behind the scenes what actually happens without telling you is that you are registered by digidentity:


Again, no way to inspire trust.

GBGroup & the Royal Mail
DWP: "building a separate ID tool as Verify can’t cut it, whisper sources"
GDS have five other "identity providers" up their sleeve – Barclays, GBGroup, Morpho, Royal Mail and PayPal. GBGroup have a lowly certification, the other four have none.

The GBGroup service that's been certified is called "ID3global" but the service they're offering the public is called "CitizenSafe". Are they the same?

GBGroup are pleased to announce that "the CitizenSafe engine will be embedded into the Royal Mail’s identity assurance process, also accessible as an alternative via GOV.UK Verify [RIP]". Register with the Royal Mail, and you get GBGroup?

No. You get Avoco Secure:
Royal Mail and GBGroup have been chosen to partner with GOV.UK’s Verify service, to provide verification of individuals so that they can access Government services online, safely and easily. The UK’s Identity Assurance market is taking shape thanks in part to the Government’s Digital Services Identity Assurance Programme. The goal is to enable trust in the Digital economy and this key win of two e-verification contracts places Avoco and their partners, in a strong position to capitalize on this fast developing market.
Who?

Never mind, it doesn't matter, the point is once again that this is no way to inspire trust.

Privacy
The adult entertainment industry and the Digital Policy Alliance: "looking for more innovative means to verify customers, where possible allowing for the potential for anonymised checks that could remove any possible abuse of confidential and personal details"
"GOV.UK Verify [RIP] is being built by Government Digital Service (GDS), working with government departments, private sector and the Privacy and Consumer Advisory Group", GDS tell us in Introducing GOV.UK Verify [RIP].

PCAG have produced nine Identity Assurance Principles and GDS are committed to abiding by all of them – "GOV.UK Verify [RIP] protects users' privacy. It has been designed to meet the principles developed by our privacy and consumer advisory group", please see GOV.UK Verify hub [RIP] - privacy aspects.

GOV.UK Verify (RIP) clearly doesn't abide by principle #7: "I can have confidence in the Identity Assurance Service because all the participants have to be certified against common governance requirements". And if you care to check, you'll find that it doesn't abide by the other eight either, please see The non-existent personal-data control-shift (Updated 14.11.14).

Security
Scotland not using GOV.UK Verify (RIP), the Scottish government has its own scheme, myaccount
And then there's the small matter of the security of GOV.UK Verify (RIP). If you've got the heart, you can read about it here, RIP IDA – who knows what they're talking about?, but ...

Sir Jeremy's wager
... the list goes on and that's quite enough to give you some idea just how sticky a wicket Sir Jeremy has chosen to bat on. He says:
To be trusted I believe we must demonstrate to the public who pay our salaries that we are open and accountable, that we are effective and efficient, and that we deliver excellent public services to citizens across the UK.
If that's what he believes, and if he wants the civil service to be more trusted, how on earth in all of his £743 billion empire (p.6) did he light on GDS as his champion?

... would you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

----------

Updated 11:20

The Institute for Government have published Trust in time: Trust in civil servants has increased, according to which some pollsters broadly agree with Ipsos MORI's 55% or so figures but YouGov found that trust in senior civil servants in November 2014 stood at only 19%.

The Institute doesn't tackle the question how GDS can provide a platform for trust in the civil service.


Updated 19.2.16

We are indebted to Kainos Software for bringing to everyone's attention an article published 10 days ago by Mark Say, the editor of UKAuthority.com, Verify [RIP] team expects 15 services for go live.

Straight bat throughout, the article does nothing but list the claims made for GOV.UK Verify (RIP). It is what negotiators call a "schedule of representations", a list of claims made by the salesmen during the sales process.

The supplier – in this case the Government Digital Service (GDS) – can be held to that list when it comes to signing the contract, at which point the representations become warranties, with contractual penalties for subsequent non-performance. Or, if the sales director feels that his or her team has perhaps been a little over-enthusiastic, items on the list can be dropped in exchange for a reduction in the consideration.

Kainos are well-placed to spot one area of contention. Mark Say includes the Rural Payments Agency's Basic Payment Scheme in the list of 15 public services that GDS say will be using GOV.UK Verify (RIP) by April 2016.

"Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) digital mapping solution, co-developed by Kainos, wins praise from Defra", as we were all saying back in April 2014. Then it all went pear-shaped, the computer system was withdrawn and now farmers apply on paper for their basic payments. Perhaps GDS would like to reduce "15" in their claim to "14"?

According to Mark Say's article:
Before it goes live, Verify [RIP] will have to pass the service standard assessment in the Government Service Design Manual, but the forecast of the number of services to go live suggests the team is confident of it passing. [Janet] Hughes says the service has already met many of the 18 points of the digital by default service standard.
GOV.UK Verify (RIP) will be uniquely assisted in its assessment. Janet Hughes is not only the Identity Assurance Programme Director. She is also the "Lead assessor for Digital by Default Service Standard Assessments".

"Four companies are already certified", according to the article, repeating what GDS say, "Digidentity, Experian, Post Offfice and Verizon". The Post Office, of course, isn't certified, please see above. Perhaps GDS would like to reduce "four" in their claim to "three"?

The certification in question is for trustworthiness. And it's not just the Post Office which isn't certified trustworthy. The Royal Mail isn't certified either. Neither is Barclays or Morpho. And PayPal hasn't even applied for certification.

"Hughes also reiterates an earlier forecast that the demographic coverage of Verify – the percentage of people expected to use it being able to do so – should hit 90% by April".

This forecast is based on the output from a mathematical model developed by GDS which heroically predicts that the percentage of 16 to 24 year-olds covered by GOV.UK Verify (RIP) will rise from about 40% late last year to about 80% more or less now. Has that happened? Perhaps GDS would like to reduce "80" in their claim?

Over-enthusiastic sales pitches can only dent trust in the civil service. There's a lot for Mark Say to investigate if he cares to. Even if he chooses not to, just recording GDS's schedule of representations is a valuable public service. He is to be thanked. As are Kainos.

Trust in the Civil Service 1

As Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service, Sir Jeremy Heywood is one of the most powerful people in the country and three days ago on 5 February 2016 he tackled the question of Trust in the Civil Service:

© Ipsos MORI
According to an Ipsos MORI poll, civil servants are more trusted than journalists and politicians (and estate agents and bankers) and less trusted than policemen, prelates, scientists, teachers and doctors. If you believe Ipsos MORI, or any other pollsters, trust in civil servants has been increasing since 1983 but 45% of people still don't believe a word Sir Jeremy says.

Wednesday 3 February 2016

RIP IDA – interview tips


That's a font, don't you know. A font called "Agile", described as "a pleasurable alphabet that is suitable for both headlines and longer body text; its spirited nature is evident in small as well as in larger point sizes". Available from Village.

In view of the Government Digital Service's love of all things agile, anyone responding to the tweet below is advised to apply with this Village font:


But which style of Agile to go for?

That would be a difficult question to answer if it weren't for GDS's recent discovery of the merits of boldness. Perfectly apposite, that epiphany was experienced by the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) Programme Director herself – so Agile Extrabold Italic on your application!

Candidates should know that the Aviation House day starts with a community rendering of the GDS corporate song, standing up by a wall and shouting it out while the traditional Post-it® notes are run up the flagpole in front of the digital-by-default icon. Learning the lyrics before your interview is an obvious user need.

There will be a certain amount of conversation at the interview. Probably best to avoid the pre-history of GOV.UK Verify (RIP). There's nothing bold about embarrassing the panel, even if you do want to demonstrate that you were born before yesterday.

You could ask the odd question about privacy and security but, in the end, no-one's interested and you don't want to look like a loser so keep it light. Extralight, even.

Far better to concentrate on the commercial aspects of GOV.UK Verify (RIP).

Do not be embarrassed by the fact that you have never created an ecosystem in your life and do not be embarrassed by the fact that you don't have a clue how to regulate a market. Your interviewers won't ask you about that and you shouldn't ask them about their experience either.

No, by "concentrate on the commercial aspects" we mean that you should ask for clarification about GOV.UK Verify (RIP)'s "identity providers".

GOV.UK Verify (RIP) had nine "identity providers" two months ago and the picture looked like this:

GOV.UK Verify (RIP)
"Identity provider" GPG45 service Applied for Granted ("no. of profiles")
.
Barclays Identity Assurance and Provisioning 28 September 2015
digidentity Identity Provider Service for Verify 30 April 2015 (4)
Experian IDaaS 21 October 2014 (4)
GBGroup ID3global 12 February 2015 (2)
Morpho secureidentity 19 November 2015
PayPal
Post Office IDA 24 February 2014, lapsed February 2015
Royal Mail
Verizon UIS 11 February 2015 (5)
.
Not an "identity provider" mentioned by GDS
Equifax Identity Verifier for IdP 10 December 2014 (2)

Now it looks more like this:

GOV.UK Verify (RIP)
"Identity provider" GPG45 service Applied for Granted ("no. of profiles")
.
Barclays Identity Assurance and Provisioning 28 September 2015
.
digidentity Identity Provider Service for Verify 30 April 2015 (4)
Post Office IDA 24 February 2014, lapsed February 2015
CallCredit?
.
Experian IDaaS 21 October 2014 (4)
.
GBGroup ID3global/CitizenSafe? 12 February 2015 (2)
Royal Mail IdP service 21 December 2015
Avoco?
.
Morpho secureidentity 19 November 2015
.
PayPal
.
Verizon UIS 11 February 2015 (5)
.
Not an "identity provider" mentioned by GDS
Equifax Identity Verifier for IdP 10 December 2014 (2)

We're down from nine "identity providers" to just seven, only four of whom are certified by tScheme.

Do not ask if the public are being properly informed. If a punter chooses Royal Mail as their "identity provider" and actually gets Avoco, that doesn't matter. Do not ask why PayPal haven't even applied yet for certification. Go-live date is April 2016, just a few weeks away admittedly, but you're agile and "you don’t have to go far to see digital teams doing the do".

GDS are being perfectly open about all this, please see Some ID providers may not be accredited by GOV.UK Verify go live. They want us all neatly registered for their revolutionary Government as a Platform and we consent to that every time we use GOV.UK Verify (RIP):


The point to make at interview is simply that GOV.UK Verify (RIP) is free. Agile Fat Italic free.

That is how to demonstrate your commercial acumen and that is how to get the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) job so that you can "help change the way citizens interact with government services":

Courtesy Companies House

RIP IDA – interview tips


That's a font, don't you know. A font called "Agile", described as "a pleasurable alphabet that is suitable for both headlines and longer body text; its spirited nature is evident in small as well as in larger point sizes". Available from Village.

Sunday 24 January 2016

"The highlights of 2015 for the [UK] Civil Service"

Sir Jeremy Heywood is the Cabinet Secretary and the Head of the UK's Home Civil Service.

He published his review of calendar 2015 in a series of 54 tweets between 23 December 2015 and 3 January 2016, a period he refers to as the 12 days of the Civil Service Christmas.

54 tweets about the highlights of the year as far as the Civil Service is concerned, month by month. The introductory tweet alongside and one for each month makes 13. 41 to go.

Some initiatives have Sir Jeremy's name obviously on them:
Sir Jeremy (5) set out his priorities in January 2015 sent his first tweet (in March 2015), launched a Leadership Statement, launched a Shadow Board and launched new Implementation Task Forces to drive the delivery of top cross-department priorities.

2015 was a successful year for the Civil Service ...
Achievements (18) The rate of employment reached a record high, the Americans followed the UK example and introduced Civil Service exams, the government carried on functioning despite the general election, the Civil Service celebrated its 160th birthday and Magna Carta its 800th, Scotland's will be one of the most powerful devolved parliaments in the world, a historic deal was reached with Iran, the government was still in power 100 days after the election, HM the Queen became our longest-reigning monarch, the Chancellor of the Exchequer asked the Civil Service for ideas on how to make the Civil Service more efficient, the government will invest a record amount in digital transformation, thousands of Civil Servants attended "fantastic" Civil Service Live events all over the country, the Civil Service was lectured to on the subject of fraud by the fraudster Frank Abagnale, Sierra Leone was declared ebola-free, the award-winning face of the UK government on-line – GOV.UK – had its two billionth hit, public servants worked around the clock to limit flood damage, the Paris Agreement on global climate change was signed and Britain's first official astronaut was launched into space.

... which attracted condign recognition:
Praise (9) Ipsos MORI said the public trust the Civil Service, the Queen praised the Civil Service in a speech at the Home Office, the Times newspaper declared the Civil Service a good place for (a) graduates and (b) women to work, the Major Projects Authority said there had been a "range" of improvements in 188 government projects, the OECD said the UK Civil Service is above average in open data and social media, the Chancellor of the Exchequer thanked the "brilliant officials" of the Civil Service for working on the Spending Review, the Civil Service Awards recognised the "fantastic" work completed by the Civil Service and the Civil Service Diversity & Inclusion Awards recognised those who champion difference.

Sir Jeremy's Civil Service is its people:
Appointments (9) A new Gender Champion was appointed at the Civil Service, there will be nearly four times as many Civil Service apprenticeships, the Civil Service Talent Plan was "refreshed" to help under-represented groups, the Civil Service Disability Champion will increase support for disabled civil servants, a Diversity Champion was appointed and a Social Mobility Champion, more quangos have women on the board, the Civil Service has hired a record number of ethnic minority graduates, four expert diversity advisers were appointed to make the Civil Service more representative and Stephen Foreshew-Cain was appointed head of the Government Digital Service.

The Civil Service has a job to do. It provides the permanent government of the UK, while politicians come and go. Sir Jeremy could have chosen any number of ways to demonstrate that the Executive is doing its job. He chose these 41. Why? What message are they meant to convey? And to whom?

Those 18 achievements. They raise questions. Is it thanks to the Civil Service that employment is at a record high? Or that 2015 is 800 years after 1215? Is there no achievement of the MOD, say, worthy of mention or the NHS?

The nine tweets of praise. Do they stand up to inspection? Is the Major Projects Authority, for example, saying that Civil Service project management is now impeccable? Is there no room to acknowledge failings/areas that need to improve? Shouldn't Sir Jeremy be preparing us for the storm clouds approaching Universal Credit and GOV.UK Verify (RIP), among others?

There must have been hundreds of people recruited to the Civil Service in 2015, maybe thousands. And hundreds or even thousands of promotions. Why are just nine of them mentioned? Why are the rest excluded?

Perhaps it's just us, with our idée fixe here at DMossEsq about the Government Digital Service (GDS), but:

And has Sir Jeremy read GDS's Style Guide?

Under W for Words to avoid, the entry for "deliver" says that pizzas can be delivered, as can the post and public services, but not "abstract concepts" like improvements or priorities.

GDS also recommend that metaphors should be avoided and give as one example "drive" – you can only drive vehicles, according to GDS, not schemes and not people.

Was there really nothing else Sir Jeremy could have tweeted? 12 days of the Civil Service Christmas makes a surprisingly poor fist of it if the idea was to enhance the standing of the Civil Service and to boost morale.

"The highlights of 2015 for the [UK] Civil Service"

Sir Jeremy Heywood is the Cabinet Secretary and the Head of the UK's Home Civil Service.

He published his review of calendar 2015 in a series of 54 tweets between 23 December 2015 and 3 January 2016, a period he refers to as the 12 days of the Civil Service Christmas.

54 tweets about the highlights of the year as far as the Civil Service is concerned, month by month. The introductory tweet alongside and one for each month makes 13. 41 to go.

Wednesday 20 January 2016

RIP IDA – the sunlight of transparency

No need to say it, it goes without saying, it should be obvious to all but,
just in case it isn't obvious to all,
IDA is dead.

IDA, now known as "GOV.UK Verify (RIP)",
is the Cabinet Office Identity Assurance programme.
And it's dead.


GOV.UK Verify (RIP), currently being tested, uses a combination of passport details, driving licence and credit rating information to try to enrol people onto the population registers maintained by the Government Digital Service's so-called "identity providers".

Even if a computer-literate person with access to broadband would like a GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account, there can be problems. Among others, that person may not have a passport or a driving licence or a credit history.

The solution to those problems suggested by GDS is to increase the range of data sources available for GOV.UK Verify (RIP), which is why on 1 December 2014, 13 months ago, GDS published How we’re working to increase the range of data sources available for GOV.UK Verify [RIP]:
We’re working to identify more government data sources to add to the document checking service. We’re hoping to be able to say a bit more about our plans on this in the new year.

The use of any additional official data sources would be subject to formal agreements on how the data can be used, and government data sources will only be used on the basis of informed user choice and consent.
They were looking for "more government data sources". Such as? Two days later, DMossEsq suggested personal information recorded by the government about your education, travel or health. That was a guess.

It wasn't a wild guess. It was based on proposals made by the Department for Business Innovation and Skills for its midata project, a close cousin of GOV.UK Verify (RIP), in this video for mooncalves:



But it was a guess nevertheless.

What is the correct answer?

That should have been known shortly. Remember: "We’re hoping to be able to say a bit more about our plans on this in the new year [i.e. January 2015, a year ago]". Remember, too, that the Cabinet Office Minister at the time, Francis "JFDI" Maude, had promised:
Surprising and disappointing, in the event, GDS still haven't told us what additional government records will be pressed into service to populate their identity registers.

Their business partner OIX, the Open Identity Exchange, has floated an alternative solution. Rather than records held by the government, why don't the "identity providers" leaf through our bank accounts instead? Please see their August 2015 white paper, The use of bank data for identity verification.
The primary benefit for Identity Providers is the availability of an additional source of data to validate user-entered data ..., establish a link between the identity and the person ... and establish activity history ..., which would help them achieve ... identity assurance at level of assurance 2. [Please see p.11]
Level of assurance 2 is acceptable in a civil court but inadequate for a criminal court, where you need level 3. OIX are telling us that GOV.UK Verify (RIP) is having trouble reaching even level 2 and that adding our bank details might help.

GDS have neither confirmed nor denied wanting access to our bank accounts. The sunlight of transparency has been dimmed.

Until the day before yesterday when Neil Merrett, read him early, read him often, wrote Experian vows to expand GOV.UK Verify data sources. Experian, remember, are one of the four "identity providers" you can register with if you want a GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account.

Would we finally discover the answer? Educational attainments? Foreign travel history? Medical records? Current account transactions? Mobile phone logs? Don't get your hopes up:
Experian said it would not be providing further details on the nature of these data sets at this time.
Are Experian embarrassed to tell us what new data sources they intend to use? That might explain their reluctance to tell us. In which case, why are they embarrassed? Do they think that it's wrong to use these data sources? Do they fear that the public might object? And that Experian's reputation might suffer?

Come to that, why have GDS kept quiet for over a year now about the "government data sources" they were "working to identify" way back in December 2014?

We don't know.

The only thing that is clear is that the claim that GOV.UK Verify (RIP) will put us all in control of our own data is empty. Remember the "informed user choice and consent" mentioned by GDS in the opening quotation above? Forget it.

Meanwhile, others are looking on and, like us, wondering. More than just wondering, they're doing something about it – DWP building a separate ID tool as Verify can’t cut it, whisper sources, says the tireless Kat Hall in ElReg:
The Department for Work and Pensions looks to be developing its own version of an online identity tool intended as a way to ensure a secure transaction with government services, according to several sources.
And it's not just the Department for Work and Pensions. Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs, too:
A number of sources have told The Register that both the DWP and HMRC are building their own separate online identity systems due to the issues related to getting Verify off the ground.
These service providers have a job to do. HMRC, for example, has to raise the tax revenue on which the state depends. They can't hang around waiting on the off-chance that GDS might get their GOV.UK Verify (RIP) act together.

DWP and HMRC between them must account for the vast majority of GOV.UK Verify (RIP)'s accountholders. The other huge service provider is the National Health Service. But they've already rejected GOV.UK Verify (RIP) on the basis that they're a better "identity provider" than Experian and the other three members of GDS's team, digidentity (Dutch), the Post Office (uncertified) and Verizon (American and banned from any government contracts in Germany).

There's always the private sector, of course. Perhaps they might like to use GOV.UK Verify (RIP)?

No.

Back to Neil Merrett and his June 2015 article, GOV.UK Verify potential in focus as private sector talks begin. GOV.UK Verify (RIP) is no use to the UK finance sector, who are building their own "digital passport". It's no use to merchants who need to conduct on-line age verification. It's even been rejected by the on-line adult entertainment/pornography sector.

The sunlight of transparency reveals an identity assurance scheme with no suppliers and no customers and a data source that dare not speak its name. RIP.

----------

Updated 26.1.16

Yesterday saw the publication of GOV.UK Verify [RIP]: understanding who can be verified and Estimating what proportion of the public will be able to use GOV.UK Verify [RIP].

The Government Digital Service (GDS) have got their slide rule out and used a mathematical model to predict what percentage of its target population – us – can in theory be enrolled onto the registers maintained by its "identity providers".

This is the picture of their prediction, categorising us by age:


Will GDS's model prove more accurate than, say, Her Majesty's Treasury's models of the UK economy? The massed brains of the Treasury assured us in 2002 and 2003, you will remember, that we had now seen the end of boom and bust. It didn't work out that way.

"Our next piece of analysis will be conducting logistic regressions and correlation matrices to gain further insights across demographic groups", they say at GDS. Good. Just like the political pollsters who predicted a dead heat between the Labour and Conservative parties at the May 2015 general election. The Conservatives won 99 more seats than Labour.

While we're waiting to see the outcome, take a look at the graph above. It shows a large increase in "verification rates" over the next few weeks.

It needs to if GDS are to meet their April 2016 target of 90 percent coverage.

The "verification rate" for orange people is due to rise from about about 40 percent to about 80 percent. Is there anything more than wishful thinking to support that large increase?

Are GDS expecting their new "identity providers" to provide that increase? No new approvals have been granted by tScheme. So there can't be any new "identity providers". Their services all have to be approved before they're let loose on the unsuspecting public.

If the expected increase isn't predicated on new "identity providers", then have the existing ones gained access to new data sources? And if so, which data sources? What personal information of ours are we about to discover that we have given permission for Verizon et al to access? For all their claims to openness, GDS still haven't told us.


Updated 29.2.16

GDS have added a fifth "identity provider", Safran Morpho, to their identity assurance platform, GOV.UK Verify (RIP). The registers underlying GDS's platforms provide a "single source of truth" according to Tom Loosemore.

Turn to the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) dashboard on the GOV.UK Performance platform, and what do we see under Certified companies? Digidentity, Experian, the Post Office and Verizon. But no Safran Morpho.

Presumably this single source of truth has to be updated manually from another single source of truth. That would explain the absence of Safran Morpho and the absence further down the dashboard page of any statistics for the week ending 28 February 2016, yesterday.

The GOV.UK Verify (RIP) Account creation success rate, all services stood at 74% on 3 January 2016.

That is consonant with the figures on the graph produced by GDS's new mathematical model.

The model predicted that "verification rates" would climb over 80% soon after 16 January 2016, please see the thick pale blue line for "total verified", i.e. everyone over the age of 16.

In the event, according to the dashboard, the single source of truth, the "verification rate" had fallen to 72% by 21 February 2016. It's going the wrong way.


Even with Safran Morpho's unregistered assistance, what chance the "verification rate" will exceed 90% in June/July 2016 as predicted by the model?


Updated 8.3.16

Another week, and another fall in the Account creation success rate, all services, down from 72% to 67% when, according to GDS's mathematical model, it was meant to be heading up through 80% towards 90%:



Updated 15.3.16

Another week, and another fall in the Account creation success rate, all services, down from 67% to 62% when, according to GDS's mathematical model, it was meant to be heading up through 80% towards 90%:



Updated 22.3.16

The dead cat bounce

It's been a goof week for GOV.UK Verify (RIP). It's in remission. The Account creation success rate, all services is up, at last.

To 90%, as predicted?

No. 66%.

Take a look at our favourite graph from GOV.UK Verify [RIP]: understanding who can be verified:


By now, late March, pink people – age 75 and over – should have a success rate over 70% according to GDS's mathematical model and for everyone else the success rate should be over 80%.

66% is off the scale. Lower than the lowest projection.

In the charming terminology of the securities world, this week's increase from 62% to 66% is a "dead cat bounce".


Updated 6.4.16

Week ending 20 March 2016, the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) dead cat account creation success rate bounced up to 66%, as noted above. A week later it was falling again, to 63% (27 March 2016) and last week it fell further, to 62% (3 April 2016). Not a good sign for a moggy that's meant to be dancing around the 90% mark.

Looking back at 25 January 2016 and Estimating what proportion of the public will be able to use GOV.UK Verify [RIP], someone spotted that there'd been an update on 29 March 2016:
Update, 29 March 2016: We are now able to publish a CSV file (663 kb) containing the data used for the web tool for 7 of the 9 demographic variables provided by the ONS omnibus survey. This is combined with our model's estimate of the individual's probability of being verified by certified companies over time. This is the maximum number of variables we could make public, whilst preserving the anonymity of respondents.
Take a look at the CSV file linked to in that update.

What you'll see is that GDS's own model predicts that:
  • GOV.UK Verify (RIP) tends to exclude individuals with a low income, people outside the managerial and professional classes, the unemployed, the very young, the very old, urbanites, women and Northerners.
  • And for everyone else, even theoretically, it's still miles away from the 100% identity verification rate you might, if you're old-fashioned, associate with a public service public provision.
The logistic regressions and correlation matrices team in GDS have estimated the probability of GOV.UK Verify (RIP)'s "identity providers" being able to verify people's identity on four different dates as follows:

Date
Verification probability
13 October 2014
71.49%
3 December 2015
73.96%
1 March 2016
86.77%
1 July 2016
93.36%

There is no indication how those probabilities were calculated. Or what assumption is made to achieve that huge increase from the 70s to the 90s. Or whether the model is wrong or maybe it's the world that's wrong, with its limp 62% account creation success rate last week.

The data in GDS's model is analysed by geographical region of Great Britain and if you calculate the average verification probability across all four dates you get:

Region
Verification probability
North West
75.62%
Scotland
77.11%
North East
78.03%
London
78.36%
West Midlands
80.90%
South East
83.37%
Wales
83.69%
Yorkshire and Humberside
83.75%
Eastern England
84.23%
South West
84.45%
East Midlands
85.32%

Something in GDS's model suggests that GOV.UK Verify (RIP) should be more successful in the South West and the East Midlands than it is in the North West and Scotland.

The data is also analysed by age:

Age
Verification probability
16 to 24
63.58%
75 and over
69.71%
65 to 74
82.72%
25 to 44
83.89%
55 to 64
84.84%
45 to 54
88.53%

GDS's model predicts significantly greater success with 25 to 74 year-olds than with the under-25s and the over-74s.

The model has four categories of employment status:

Employment status
Verification probability
unemployed
73.46%
economically inactive
73.59%
unpaid family worker
85.90%
in employment
87.36%

GOV.UK Verify (RIP) doesn't look much good for the unemployed and the economically inactive.

Analysing by socio-economic status, we get:

Socio-economic status
Verification probability
not classified 
68.85%
routine and manual
79.19%
intermediate
86.86%
managerial and professional
91.77%

GOV.UK Verify (RIP) works best for the managerial and professional classes – senior civil servants? – and steeply worse for everyone else.

It's supposed to work better in rural areas (86.46%) than urban areas (80.53%) according to GDS's model. It's supposed to work better for males (83.21%) than for females (79.96%). And the more income an individual has, the better GOV.UK Verify (RIP) can verify his or her identity:

Individual income
Verification probability
up to £10,399 
70.09%
no source of income
71.12%
don't know
74.04%
refused
78.74%
£10,400 to £19,759
80.62%
£19,760 to £28,599
89.71%
£28,600 and over
94.17%


Updated 12.4.16

Last week the dead cat bounced up from 62% to 67%. An account creation success rate of 67% is lower than the worst verification probability predicted (Foreshewn?) by GDS for any UK income group.

GOV.UK Verify (RIP) is meant to be able to verify the identity of 70.09% of individuals with an annual income up to £10,339, please see immediately above. That would exclude 29.91% of these people from public services if the UK relied on GOV.UK Verify (RIP).

That's bad enough but it looks as if the exclusion rate may be more like 33%.

Anyway, nothing like the 10% exclusion rate GDS said was acceptable for GOV.UK Verify (RIP) going live this month, April 2016, 18 days left.


Updated 18 April 2016

Last week, 11-17 April 2016, the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account creation success rate went up to 71%, just under the 72% peak reached in the last fortnight of February 2016.

This increase could be the result of GDS herding people away from the poorly-performing "identity providers" – Barclays, GB Group/CitizenSafe, Royal Mail, Safran Morpho/SecureIdentity and Verizon.

It could also be the result of increasing the minimum age of registration from 19 to 20, thereby excluding another 1.2% of the UK population from getting one of GDS's on-line identities to transact with public services.

The success rate of 71% is bought at the expense of five "identity providers" and all the under-20s.

It's an increase, but 71% is still miles away from the 90% GDS require before GOV.UK Verify (RIP) can go live. It's not going to be achieved this month. Meanwhile, the outside world isn't standing still.


Updated 25.4.16

In the week to 24 April 2016, the account creation success rate fell to 70% from 71% the previous week. There's nothing much to be said about that except that it remains well below the 90% threshold required to declare GOV.UK Verify (RIP) live but GDS may declare it to be live later this week anyway and hang the consequences.


Updated 3.5.16

In the week to 1 May 2016, the account creation success rate rose to 71% from 70% the previous week. There's nothing much to be said about that except that it remains well below the 90% threshold required to declare GOV.UK Verify (RIP) live. GDS claimed to be "nearly there" last week, but sensibly delayed the live announcement. Another day, another deadline missed.


Updated 9.5.16 1

Has the account creation success rate surged to 90%+ in the past week?

We don't know.

At midday 12 noon on Monday 9 May 2016, the Government Digital Service's performance platform dashboard for GOV.UK Verify (RIP) still hasn't been updated. We're left looking at the statistics up to 1 May 2016, eight days ago:


You might think that the Government Digital Service is digital. And that dashboards on the performance platform get updated automatically and at the speed of light.

Clearly not.

Are GDS waiting for the sign-writers to turn up? Do they have to doctor the figures before publication in some way that can't be encoded in an algorithm?


Updated 9.5.16 2

Whatever you do, don't look down

Gravity is a harsh mistress
Since about 2 p.m. we now know that in the week to 8 May 2016, the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account creation success rate fell from 71% the previous week to 68% .

There's nothing much to be said about that except that it remains well below the 90% threshold required to declare GOV.UK Verify (RIP) live.

In the same week, the authentication completion rate fell from 40% to 36%.

GDS claim to be "nearly there" but what they mean is that they're a bit further away.


Updated 16.5.16

2:19 p.m. Monday afternoon here in the metropolis and the only question is how did GOV.UK Verify (RIP) do last week? As at 8 May 2016, a week ago, 64% of attempted authentications failed. I.e. the authentication completion rate was a princely 36%.

GOV.UK Verify (RIP) is meant to replace the Government Gateway by the end of March 2018. 22½ months time. The Government Gateway is the system HMRC depends on to raise the revenue to pay for public services in the UK. A 64% failure rate for authentications in GOV.UK Verify (RIP) could induce an uncomfortable clammy feeling here and there in Whitehall.

So has the rate improved this week?

We don't know. The GOV.UK Verify (RIP) dashboard on GDS's performance platform still hasn't been updated.

So much for digital by default.


Updated 3.6.16

It will come as news to nobody that today is Friday.

Friday 3 June 2016.

That's four days after Monday 30 May 2016, which is when we might all have expected to see the updated figures on the performance of GOV.UK Verify (RIP) for the week ending Sunday 29 May 2016.

Well hard luck us. The figures weren't available then and they still aren't now (10:00). We are left with the antique performance figures to 22 May 2016 – account creation success rate 68% (not 100%) and authentication completion rate 34% (not 100%).

We have noted that ever since GOV.UK Verify (RIP) was declared live on 24 May 2016 the Government Digital Service (GDS) immediately went into retrenchment mode. The will gone, their energy sapped, is this silence on the system's performance more of the same? Have GDS simply lost interest?


Updated 23.62016

For the week ending 29 May 2016, we finally discovered, the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account creation success rate was 69%. A week later it rose to 72% (5 June 2016), then fell again to 71% a week after that (12 June 2016).  And for the week ending 19 June 2016? We would normally expect to have the figure some time on Monday 20 June 2016. But no. Here we are on Thursday 23 June 2016 and we still don't know how GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account creation fared last week.

It's not just you losing interest. Clearly, GDS couldn't care either.


Updated 27.6.16 10:55 a.m.

What was the GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account creation success rate for the week ending 19 June 2016? That's what we were asking last week.

We now know that it fell from 71% to 69%. We also know that it fell again, to 68%, for the week ending yesterday.

We were assured that GOV.UK Verify (RIP) could not be declared live until the account creation success rate reached at least 90%. It has missed that low target by at least 20% and yet the system has nevertheless been declared live.

The GOV.UK Verify (RIP) authentication completion rate was 33% in the week ending 12 June 2016. I.e. 67% of attempted authentications failed. Not good. Has that performance improved? We don't know. The performance figures haven't been updated for a fortnight now.

Ditto the certified company completion rate and the certified company choice rate. Ditto, not surprisingly, all three measures of user satisfaction.


Updated 19.8.16

Seven months on from where we started, and GDS have published Improving GOV.UK Verify’s demographic coverage - an update.

Coverage of the UK population by GOV.UK Verify (RIP) may or may not have improved. Either way, it's still below the 90% GDS said they needed for the system to go live and yet go live it did back in May.

What's more, in July, GDS stopped publishing statistics for the account creation success rate on the dashboard, claiming that they don't "tell us or the user much about how well GOV.UK Verify [RIP] is performing". Actually, these statistics speak volumes. Here's GDS's latest graphic:
There's no vertical axis and GDS, supposedly the custodians of data analysis in the UK, don't tell us in their blog post what the different colours mean, but GOV.UK Verify (RIP) clearly has problems authenticating people's identity outside the age range 25 to 44. That is a matter of great interest to the users, pace GDS.

And don't forget, according to the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, even when GOV.UK Verify (RIP) does claim to have proved someone's identity, it hasn't. It's merely recorded an act of self-certification.

RIP IDA – the sunlight of transparency

No need to say it, it goes without saying, it should be obvious to all but,
just in case it isn't obvious to all,
IDA is dead.

IDA, now known as "GOV.UK Verify (RIP)",
is the Cabinet Office Identity Assurance programme.
And it's dead.


GOV.UK Verify (RIP), currently being tested, uses a combination of passport details, driving licence and credit rating information to try to enrol people onto the population registers maintained by the Government Digital Service's so-called "identity providers".

Even if a computer-literate person with access to broadband would like a GOV.UK Verify (RIP) account, there can be problems. Among others, that person may not have a passport or a driving licence or a credit history.

The solution to those problems suggested by GDS is to increase the range of data sources available for GOV.UK Verify (RIP), which is why on 1 December 2014, 13 months ago, GDS published How we’re working to increase the range of data sources available for GOV.UK Verify [RIP]:
We’re working to identify more government data sources to add to the document checking service. We’re hoping to be able to say a bit more about our plans on this in the new year.

The use of any additional official data sources would be subject to formal agreements on how the data can be used, and government data sources will only be used on the basis of informed user choice and consent.
They were looking for "more government data sources". Such as? Two days later, DMossEsq suggested personal information recorded by the government about your education, travel or health. That was a guess.