Sunday, 2 September 2012

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 7


... why is the government getting involved in midata,
an initiative which can't deliver any of its stated aims
but which will expose everyone to identity theft?

It's up to the department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS)
to answer that question.

There are two more open forums left in the BIS midata consultation programme
Just email midata@bis.gsi.gov.uk to attend
1 Victoria Street London SW1H 0ET

Let's get an answer


On 3 November 2011, when the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) issued their midata press release, the BBC's technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones interviewed Professor Nigel Shadbolt.

Professor Shadbolt is an expert in artificial intelligence. He and his colleague at the University of Southampton, Professor Sir Tim Berners-Lee, are co-directors of the Open Data Institute (ODI) ...
... established by the UK Government to innovate, exploit and research Open Data opportunities ...

The new Institute is one of a number of measures that the Government announced ... as part of a larger initiative to boost UK economic growth.
Professor Shadbolt is also chair of the midata programme, related to the ODI, but different.

Mr Cellan-Jones has been around the block a few times and he cut straight to the chase:
Two questions spring to mind - what's the catch for consumers and why is the government getting involved?
He poses that question to Professor Shadbolt at 2'15" in the televised BBC interview and the answer given, with his midata hat on, is that the government wants to encourage the development of an environment in which data is shared.

But the private sector already releases transaction data back to consumers. It doesn't obviously need any more encouragement or legislation.

Entrepreneurs can already develop applications which process that data if they want to. At the start, midata was supposed to be a voluntary scheme. Now BIS have gone beyond trying to "encourage the development of an environment in which data is shared" and moved on to legislation. Why? There's no reason to believe that BIS can create a market in personal data transactions after legislation is introduced any more than they have done in the 400 years of their existence so far.

BIS give no reason to believe that this legislation would expand the economy.

They initially offered consumers control over their personal transaction data, in addition to access to it, but that was a false prospectus and BIS have now had to renege on that offer. Consumers will have no more control over their data after BIS have taken their midata order-making powers than before.

And the benefits of a midata future pictured by BIS seem peculiarly footling. Example #1 of the future offered by midata concerns, of all things, warranties. midata could provide us with a "contracts and warranties dashboard".

For goodness sake, we can already monitor the warranties we have bought with our washing machines if we want to. Do we really need legislation to make that easier? If we don't monitor these warranties now, why would we monitor them any more after BIS have involved themselves?

midata really is lonely. It has no economic argument to support it. It is unaccompanied by any cogent benefits to consumers or the economy. Private sector suppliers and their customers/clients have got on perfectly well without midata for the past 5,000 years. Government ministers can't explain why they are wedded to midata and neither can their officials.

BIS aren't stupid. They know just as well as the rest of us that they haven't answered Mr Cellan-Jones's question, why the government is getting involved. It can't just be to help us monitor our warranties.

We're none the wiser. All we know is that BIS are sufficiently motivated to enact legislation to make midata a reality while being completely incapable of saying why. What really impels BIS in this case?

When, as here, there is a gap between what the government is doing and what it says the temptation is to fill it with all sorts of conspiracy theories.

Let's give ourselves a limit of 13 paragraphs to see what kind of a conspiracy theory we can cook up.

Faced with making a decision, we all have problems. We're no good at getting utilitarian choices right. So says Norman Lamb, minister responsible for midata, in his Foreword to the midata 2012 review and consultation (p.8):
Technology has allowed businesses to understand their customers’ needs and buying patterns to an unprecedented degree. At the moment consumers are at a disadvantage because the vast majority of them do not have the ability to use that same data to help their own decisions. The midata programme aims to redress this imbalance.
If midata ever comes to pass, everyone will have a Personal Data Inventory (PDI) which includes all our transaction data, please see the consultation document, para.2.19, p.24:

A ‘Personal Data Inventory’ has been proposed, with the aim of giving consumers clear information about the types of data which organisations hold about them. This work is still in development by the midata programme participants, but broadly the proposal is that to gain access to their Personal Data Inventory, the customer would have to log-in to a secure website where the Personal Data Inventory would contain a simple explanation of each category of data and if, and how, the data can be accessed by the consumer. The Personal Data Inventory is likely to contain data such as address and contact details, existing tariffs/contracts, payment methods, items purchased, when, value, amount spent per year, usage data.
And thanks to BIS we will have the benefit of a thriving applications industry which processes the data in the PDI to make the right decisions for us.

All that's needed, it seems, is the data. And a wise application. That's all that's missing when we currently try to choose. Only supply the data, and a computer application can make the right decision. Notice what happens here. The pathetically irrational human being in between is cancelled out of the equation.

This imaginary world in which electronic Mary Poppinses run our lives for us is coherent with the picture BIS provide of a midata future in which, for example, an application decides whether we should go out one evening or not, please see A midata future: 10 ways it could shape your choices, example #10, Going out:

So where your favourite restaurant has deals or offers, you could be alerted in advance to take advantage and make a booking. Combined with other services, the programme could also indicate where you could save money or improve your health by eating elsewhere, drinking less or going out less.
Has BIS been infiltrated by mad scientists who believe in the perfectability of human beings by computer? If so, which mad scientists?

You may suspect Professor Shadbolt in the library, with his eerie and recondite expertise in artificial intelligence. Perhaps he is the manipulative genius plotting to bring about a worldwide nightmare utilitarian tyranny?

There is no evidence of that. If anything, Professor Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web,
is more likely to be the guilty party. Here he is, being quoted by the Guardian in their Battle for the Internet debate:
... individual users were not yet being allowed to exploit all the information relating to them to make their lives easier. Armed with the information that social networks and other web giants hold about us, he said, computers will be able to "help me run my life, to guess what I need next, to guess what I should read in the morning, because it will know not only what's happening out there but also what I've read already, and also what my mood is, and who I'm meeting later on".
A mooncalf may believe that twaddle but, unless they've gone completely mad, BIS won't.

Conspiracy theory over, obviously we can forget the mad scientists and the subjugation of the human race worldwide. But we have come up with something. The PDI. BIS seem to recommend that we should all have a PDI, stored somewhere on the web – in the cloud – and containing all our transaction data. And they seem to recommend that third party computer applications should be given access to that data to help us to make the best decisions for ourselves.

This is strange coming from the UK government, or any other reputable body.

Identity theft is a major problem on the web. CIFAS, the Home Office, Financial Fraud Action UK, the UK Cards Association, Equifax, Experian, the Royal Mail, Callcredit, HM Revenue & Customs, DVLA, the Identity & Passport Service, the Serious Organised Crime Agency, the Metropolitan Police, the City of London Police, the Scotish Business Crime Centre, the Financial Services Authority, the British Bankers' Association, BSIA and NFA have all come together to form IdentityTheft.org.uk to make people more aware of the problems of identity theft and to help them to avoid it.

And yet here's BIS suggesting that we should collect our transaction data together in one place, store it with one set of complete strangers in a PDI somewhere on the web and then let another set of complete strangers access it – exactly the opposite of what IdentityTheft.org.uk recommend.

Once again, with feeling, and Rory Cellan-Jones, why is the government getting involved in midata, an initiative which can't deliver any of its stated aims but which will expose everyone to identity theft?

It's up to BIS to answer that question. There are two more open forums left in their midata consultation, on 4 and 6 September 2012. Just email midata@bis.gsi.gov.uk to attend. Let's get an answer at last to Mr Cellan-Jones's question.

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 7


... why is the government getting involved in midata,
an initiative which can't deliver any of its stated aims
but which will expose everyone to identity theft?

It's up to the department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS)
to answer that question.

There are two more open forums left in the BIS midata consultation programme
Just email midata@bis.gsi.gov.uk to attend
1 Victoria Street London SW1H 0ET

Let's get an answer


On 3 November 2011, when the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) issued their midata press release, the BBC's technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones interviewed Professor Nigel Shadbolt.

Professor Shadbolt is an expert in artificial intelligence. He and his colleague at the University of Southampton, Professor Sir Tim Berners-Lee, are co-directors of the Open Data Institute (ODI) ...
... established by the UK Government to innovate, exploit and research Open Data opportunities ...

The new Institute is one of a number of measures that the Government announced ... as part of a larger initiative to boost UK economic growth.
Professor Shadbolt is also chair of the midata programme, related to the ODI, but different.

Mr Cellan-Jones has been around the block a few times and he cut straight to the chase:
Two questions spring to mind - what's the catch for consumers and why is the government getting involved?

Thursday, 30 August 2012

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 6

On 3 November 2011, the department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) issued a press release about midata, their "exciting" plan to empower people and make the economy grow.

On or about 26 July 2012 BIS and the Cabinet Office's Behavioural Insights Team jointly issued their midata 2012 review and consultation.

Question – in the intervening 266 days, what did BIS make?

Answer – progress.

How do we know?

Because they tell us. Norman Lamb, the minister responsible, tells us on p.8 of the review that:
I am pleased to be publishing an update on progress on midata and consulting on proposals to provide it with a statutory underpinning.
Only two paragraphs later, there's been more progress:
Under Professor Shadbolt’s Chairmanship progress has been made, with businesses, consumer groups, regulators and Government agreeing core principles about data release, commissioning research into customer attitudes and beginning work on important questions about privacy and security.
It's all go. By p.11:
Progress has been made on establishing a vision and principles. We understand better the current consumer and business perceptions and the need for safeguards when consumers use their data. And we have started to see data made available.
BIS are really quite insistent, p.27:
As this review shows, there has been progress in moving midata from a concept towards reality.
It's clearly been a hectic 266 days, in some ways, for BIS and Professor Shadbolt. What with establishing the vision. And the principles.

They've had to chat with all those businesses and consumer groups and regulators and government departments. And they've had to commission research. Exhausting.

The discovery of the need for safeguards for people's privacy, and the need for security, when you're shunting personal data around must have come as a shock.

It is inevitable in this maelstrom that a few wheels fall off the initial vision. midata was meant to give us control over our own data, as well as access to it, but now control has been droppedmidata was going to be a voluntary scheme but now, perhaps at the suggestion of the Behavioural Insights Team, the idea is to legislate and make it compulsory.

The drafting of that legislation, and generally turning the midata concept into reality, will be a struggle. How will BIS force the banks, for example, to start issuing us all with statements? Professor Shadbolt may well have to hold more discussions and commission more research to crack that one.

And someone still has to come up with a reason to believe that midata would make the UK economy grow – despite all the progress already made, there's a lot of work still to be done.

Let's finish on a positive note with some incontrovertible progress made by the midata team.

Once we've all got all our transactions with every supplier we deal with safely stored in our "personal data inventory (PDI)", as BIS call it, we're supposed to be able to process the PDI in some beneficial way using applications which the market has failed so far to deliver but which, now somehow inspired by BIS, will at last appear.

What sort of applications? This question was posed to Kirstin Green at the 9 August 2012 open forum and the answer seemed a little extempore. The "midators" have obviously thought about the question since then and on 22 August 2012 the top story on the BIS news website was Next steps making midata a reality, which includes a link to A midata future: 10 ways it could shape your choices.

The reader will enjoy all the examples given, of how midata would offer otherwise unattainable benefits which empower the consumer and expand the economy. It is invidious to choose between them.

The first example of the midata future suggests that you could use your PDI to monitor the warranties on all the equipment in your house:
Instead of losing receipts and forgetting when guarantees expire, customers can use a ‘contracts and warranties dashboard’ to keep track of their purchases.
Hard to beat but somehow the tenth example is even more cogent – you can almost feel the economy expanding as you read it, this is why the state has to take order-making powers to promote midata. It's called "Going out" and it reads, in full, as follows:
midata service providers could use an individuals purchase data to look at which restaurants and bars that user like. Taking this data, they could offer you a unique service, alerting you to new or recommended restaurants that suit your taste and location.

So where your favourite restaurant has deals or offers, you could be alerted in advance to take advantage and make a booking. Combined with other services, the programme could also indicate where you could save money or improve your health by eating elsewhere, drinking less or going out less.

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 6

On 3 November 2011, the department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) issued a press release about midata, their "exciting" plan to empower people and make the economy grow.

On or about 26 July 2012 BIS and the Cabinet Office's Behavioural Insights Team jointly issued their midata 2012 review and consultation.

Question – in the intervening 266 days, what did BIS make?

Wednesday, 29 August 2012

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 5

BIS have no communicable reason whatever
to support their contention that midata would expand the economy

Giving people access to their transaction data will cause the UK economy to grow. That is the logic behind midata according to the department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS).

It may seem obvious to you that the argument is valid. If you're a mooncalf.

But it isn't obvious to David Miller.

David Miller is an economist at BIS. He attended the 9 August 2012 open forum on midata and was asked what reason there is to believe that accessing our transaction data would result in an expanded economy.

Properly brought up, he answered truthfully: "obviously there would be costs at first, setting up midata, and running costs thereafter, and the expected competition could have the effect of driving prices down but the general feeling is that in the end the economy would grow as a result". By how much? "It's very difficult if not impossible to say what the macroeconomic effect would be."

No notes were taken and Mr Miller's words here are paraphrased but the implication is clear – they're flying blind. BIS have no communicable reason whatever to support their contention that midata would expand the economy.

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 5

BIS have no communicable reason whatever
to support their contention that midata would expand the economy

Giving people access to their transaction data will cause the UK economy to grow. That is the logic behind midata according to the department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS).

It may seem obvious to you that the argument is valid. If you're a mooncalf.

But it isn't obvious to David Miller.

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 4

In short, BIS want the power to force companies to do something
that they're already doing.

Some readers may by now have forgotten what the point is of midata. In their own words, with a view to empowering consumers and growing the economy, the Department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) say, in their midata consultation document (para.6, p.11):
... we are consulting on the possibility of taking an order making power. If utilised, this will compel suppliers of services and goods to provide to their customers, upon request, historic transaction data in a machine readable format.
The banks already provide us with "historic transaction data". We've had bank statements for as long as anyone can remember and they're already available on the web "in a machine readable format". The energy companies ditto. And the phone companies. And Amazon. And ...

Futile inanity
In short, BIS want the order-making power to force companies to do something that they're already doing.

They're holding a number of open forums as part of the midata consultation process. Anyone can go. It's easy. As BIS say, "... please email midata@bis.gsi.gov.uk to attend".

Anyone who can get along to the 4 and 6 September 2012 sessions may care to ask BIS what the difference is between midata and futile inanity.



Cribsheet – deregulation
By taking powers to make companies do something it may seem that midata increases the regulatory burden on UK business. Nothing could be further from the truth. As BIS tell us (para.4, p.11):
Increased data transparency and greater consumer choice will help promote innovation and competition and could also have a deregulatory effect. By giving people access to their data in a format which is machine readable it may be possible to avoid the need for some types of regulation, for example, specifying product characteristics.

midata, the loneliest initiative in Whitehall – 4

In short, BIS want the power to force companies to do something
that they're already doing.

Some readers may by now have forgotten what the point is of midata. In their own words, with a view to empowering consumers and growing the economy, the Department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) say, in their midata consultation document (para.6, p.11):
... we are consulting on the possibility of taking an order making power. If utilised, this will compel suppliers of services and goods to provide to their customers, upon request, historic transaction data in a machine readable format.
The banks already provide us with "historic transaction data". We've had bank statements for as long as anyone can remember and they're already available on the web "in a machine readable format". The energy companies ditto. And the phone companies. And Amazon. And ...

Monday, 27 August 2012

Andrew Dilnot and honest political debate in the UK – 1

Time was when Sir Michael Scholar was the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) and he said, among other things:
“One of the reasons I took this job is that having good statistics is like having clean water and clean air. It’s the fundamental material that we depend on for an honest political debate ...”
You may want to tweak Sir Michael's point a bit. You may prefer to say that there are many fundamental materials, not just "good statistics", whatever "good" means. But if you're interested in honest political debate it's hard to gainsay him, Sir Michael is onto something.

Now he has passed the baton, and it is Andrew Dilnot who is chairman of the UKSA and who leads the Government Statistical Service and thus the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Mr Dilnot has investigated the problem of social care for the elderly and recommended to the government that there should be a cap of £35,000 on the amount anyone is expected to pay for their care. Thereafter, the government should pay for it, he says, even if the elderly person has assets of their own, such as a house which could be sold to pay for their care.

It is impossible now in the UK to get insurance cover for social care in your old age. Mr Dilnot recently described that to the BBC as a "market failure". He's wrong, isn't he? If the market values your house at £350,000, say, then thanks to the market you can afford about 100 months in a decent old people's home. The market has not failed and Mr Dilnot is wrong to say that it has.

In the same BBC interview, Mr Dilnot describes the state stepping in and taking over the payment of your social care as you "taking control of your life". Surely it's the opposite. It's the state taking control.

The cost of implementing Mr Dilnot's £35,000 cap is estimated – very possibly by the ONS – to be £750 million p.a. That is just over one one-thousandth of current public expenditure ("one per mil" or "1‰") and so, Mr Dilnot says, his plan should be adopted as government policy.

An annual contribution of £750 million to the DMossEsq executive pension plan would also represent only about 1‰ of public expenditure. Is that a reason to make such a contribution?

It's all very well chatting about what individuals can afford but there are other questions:
  • How much can the state afford?
  • Public spending in the UK stands at about £700 billion p.a. at the moment, of which about £150 billion is borrowed. Is it sustainable to continue increasing the tax burden and the level of borrowing? How long can we go on printing money, through quantitative easing or any other technique? What happens to inflation? And interest rates? And exchange rates?
  • With our £2 trillion national debt*, aren't we supposed to be looking for ways to cut public spending, and not increase it? When do we have to confront reality?
  • If we can raise another £750 million in tax, or borrow it, why spend it on social care for the elderly who own a house? Why not eye care? Or dental care? Or subsidised taxies? Why not reduce the excise duty on tobacco?
  • Why spend the money on a problem that doesn't need solving? People just need to sell their house and then they're in funds. Why not try to solve a real problem?
  • Is social care for the elderly who can afford to pay for it themselves a legitimate matter for the state to involve itself in? If so, is there any limit to state involvement?
  • Could the budget on some other less vital public services be cut by £750 million to pay for Mr Dilnot's dream?
  • The standards of some care homes for the elderly are exemplary and in other cases the standards fall below the level we expect of a zoo. How does Mr Dilnot propose to ensure that public funds will provide dignified care and not sub-zoo care?
  • Mr Dilnot considers individuals on the one hand and the state on the other. That doesn't exhaust the cast of actors in this play. Among others, there are families in between. Are families avoiding their responsibilities? Is the problem of social care for the elderly a failure of families? What does Mr Dilnot propose to do about that?
He doesn't burden the BBC with any of these questions. Or any answers to them.

With Mr Dilnot now in charge, the water is just a little cloudier and the air just a little less Swiss – what price "honest political debate" in the UK?

----------

* The Times, 27 August 2012, Confusion reigns over the state of British debt:
A poll for the Centre for Policy Studies found that far more people wrongly believed that the coalition intended to cut debt over the next few years than correctly believed that it expected to increase it ...

While planning to bring down the annual deficit — the difference between what the Government spends and the money it receives and the amount of extra borrowing it incurs each year — the coalition nevertheless expects to lift total government debt by £600 billion between 2010 and 2015 ...

Total government debt is £1.03 trillion, equivalent to 65.7 per cent of Britain’s total national output. Add in liabilities kept off the balance sheet and it doubles to more than £2 trillion ...

Andrew Dilnot and honest political debate in the UK – 1

Time was when Sir Michael Scholar was the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) and he said, among other things:
“One of the reasons I took this job is that having good statistics is like having clean water and clean air. It’s the fundamental material that we depend on for an honest political debate ...”
You may want to tweak Sir Michael's point a bit. You may prefer to say that there are many fundamental materials, not just "good statistics", whatever "good" means. But if you're interested in honest political debate it's hard to gainsay him, Sir Michael is onto something.